A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
